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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Egypt vs Malawi

Today 19:00 1 hour, 6 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 3.5 goals · 70.4%
book 1.50x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• type ledger 71% (n=343)
• priced 1.50x - band hits ~65% (60d)
• league is untracked (no graded ledger yet)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 10/4 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U3.5: 70.6% hit (n=343, 90d ledger)
measured band: 68.8% (n=96)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
70.4%
Under 3.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Under 3.5 goals solid (70.4%)
@ 11 Nov 17:02 · 1.50x
board also had Either team wins 91.5%
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
89.2%
Draw
8.5%
Away win
2.3%
calibrated 11 Nov 17:02
scoring fit λ 2.35 / μ 0.05
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
2.3%
43.7x – risky
Draw
8.5%
11.82x – risky
top Home win
89.2%
1.12x – solid
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Egypt 1.0 ppg vs Malawi 1.17 ppg
Egypt · last 6
04 Oct · Friendlies 0-1 L
29 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 0-5 W
25 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 0-0 D
07 Jul · World Cup 3-2 L
03 Jul · World Cup 1-1 D
27 Jun · World Cup 1-1 D
Malawi · last 6
06 Oct · Africa Cup of Nations… 3-1 L
25 Sep · Africa Cup of Nations… 2-1 W
09 Jun · Friendlies 1-1 D
06 Jun · Friendlies 1-0 L
31 Mar · Friendlies 1-0 L
18 Nov · Friendlies 0-1 W
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.