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Premier League
Port City vs Basake Holy Stars
Sun 08 Nov 17:30 0 minutes final 1–0 · 1 won · 0 lostBa
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Either team wins · 78.4%
why
• league SUSPENDED (67.7%, n=31)
• type ledger 75% (n=2258)
• league's published legs underperform
league track
None · 67.7% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 50.1%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 24/12 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2258, 90d ledger)
measured band: 74.8% (n=938)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
78.4%
Either team wins
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (78.4%)
@ 08 Nov 17:27
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
74.8%
Draw
21.6%
Away win
3.6%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:27
scoring fit λ 2.10 / μ 0.41
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
3.6%
|
27.93x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
21.6%
|
4.63x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
74.8%
|
1.34x | 67.7% n=31 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Port City 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Port City 1.83 ppg vs Basake Holy… 1.0 ppg
Port City · last 6
08 Nov · Premier League
1-0
W
01 Nov · Premier League
0-0
D
25 Oct · Premier League
1-2
W
18 Oct · Premier League
1-1
D
11 Oct · Premier League
1-0
L
04 Oct · Premier League
3-1
W
Basake Holy Stars · last 6
08 Nov · Premier League
1-0
L
01 Nov · Premier League
0-1
L
23 Oct · Premier League
1-0
L
18 Oct · Premier League
1-0
W
11 Oct · Premier League
2-0
L
04 Oct · Premier League
1-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Premier League
Port City 1-0 Basake Holy Sta…