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Warri Wolves vs Katsina United

Sun 08 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 1–1 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 88.4%
book 1.21x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (75.7%, n=37)
• type ledger 80% (n=1980)
• short price 1.21x
league track
proven · 75.7% of 37 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.9%)
draws 40.0% of matches
team history 13/13 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1980, 90d ledger)
measured band: 84.9% (n=292)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
88.4%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home, draw refunds solid (84.1%)
@ 08 Nov 17:24 · 1.24x
Home or Draw solid (88.4%)
@ 08 Nov 17:24 · 1.21x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
61.6%
Draw
26.8%
Away win
11.6%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 1.72 / μ 0.64
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 382 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
11.6%
8.61x 62.3% n=382 risky lost
Draw
26.8%
3.73x 62.3% n=382 risky won
top Home win
61.6%
1.62x 62.3% n=382 lean lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 5 meetings — Warri Wolves 3W / 1D / 1L · momentum Warri Wolves 1.17 ppg vs Katsina Uni… 1.5 ppg
Warri Wolves · last 6
08 Nov · NPFL 1-1 D
01 Nov · NPFL 1-1 D
25 Oct · NPFL 0-0 D
18 Oct · NPFL 0-0 D
11 Oct · NPFL 3-1 W
04 Oct · NPFL 1-0 L
Katsina United · last 6
08 Nov · NPFL 1-1 D
01 Nov · NPFL 2-1 W
25 Oct · NPFL 2-2 D
18 Oct · NPFL 1-0 L
09 Oct · NPFL 4-2 W
04 Oct · NPFL 1-1 D
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · NPFL Warri Wolves 1-1 Katsina United
19 Jan 26 · NPFL Warri Wolves 2-0 Katsina United
24 Aug 25 · NPFL Katsina United 0-1 Warri Wolves
30 May 21 · NPFL Katsina United 1-0 Warri Wolves
13 Jan 21 · NPFL Warri Wolves 3-0 Katsina United
Tickets including this match
SURESHOT win chance 77.5% VOID VALUE win chance 75.8% LOST VALUE win chance 75.8% VOID VALUE win chance 75.3% VOID VALUE win chance 78.3% VOID