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Botola 2
El Massira vs Wydad Fès
Sun 08 Nov 16:00 0 minutes final 0–1 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 91.3%
why
• league PROVEN (82.6%, n=23)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 82.6% of 23 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 62.9%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 15/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
91.3%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
17.9%
Draw
23.9%
Away win
58.2%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:27
scoring fit λ 0.77 / μ 1.64
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 01 Nov · 314 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
58.2%
|
1.72x | 41.1% n=314 | lean | won |
| Draw |
23.9%
|
4.18x | 41.1% n=314 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
17.9%
|
5.59x | 41.1% n=314 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 11 meetings — El Massira 5W / 3D / 3L
· momentum El Massira 0.83 ppg vs Wydad Fès 2.17 ppg
El Massira · last 6
08 Nov · Botola 2
0-1
L
01 Nov · Botola 2
2-1
L
25 Oct · Botola 2
2-1
W
17 Oct · Botola 2
1-0
L
11 Oct · Botola 2
2-2
D
04 Oct · Botola 2
0-0
D
Wydad Fès · last 6
08 Nov · Botola 2
0-1
W
01 Nov · Botola 2
3-1
W
25 Oct · Botola 2
2-2
D
18 Oct · Botola 2
4-1
W
11 Oct · Botola 2
2-0
L
03 Oct · Botola 2
3-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Botola 2
El Massira 0-1 Wydad Fès
27 Jun 26 · Botola 2
Wydad Fès 3-0 El Massira
08 Feb 26 · Botola 2
El Massira 3-2 Wydad Fès
02 Mar 25 · Botola 2
El Massira 1-0 Wydad Fès
27 Oct 24 · Botola 2
Wydad Fès 0-0 El Massira