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Premier League

Everton vs Coventry

Fri 06 Nov 22:00 0 minutes final 3–1 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Home or Draw · 78.1%
book 1.26x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (76.6%, n=47)
• type ledger 79% (n=2000)
• short price 1.26x
• priced 1.26x needs 79% to break even
league track
proven · 76.6% of 47 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 62.8%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 21/15 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.0% hit (n=2000, 90d ledger)
measured band: 77.5% (n=583)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2556)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
78.1%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw solid (78.1%)
@ 06 Nov 17:52 · 1.26x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
51.5%
Draw
26.6%
Away win
21.9%
calibrated 06 Nov 17:52
scoring fit λ 1.75 / μ 1.08
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 370 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
21.9%
4.57x 48.4% n=370 risky lost
Draw
26.6%
3.76x 48.4% n=370 risky lost
top Home win
51.5%
1.94x 48.4% n=370 risky won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 15 meetings — Everton 3W / 6D / 6L · momentum Everton 1.67 ppg vs Coventry 1.5 ppg
Everton · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League 3-1 W
02 Nov · Premier League 0-1 W
28 Oct · League Cup 3-1 W
24 Oct · Premier League 2-0 L
17 Oct · Premier League 0-2 L
11 Oct · Premier League 2-2 D
Coventry · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League 3-1 L
31 Oct · Premier League 3-1 W
24 Oct · Premier League 0-1 L
19 Oct · Premier League 3-1 L
12 Oct · Premier League 4-1 W
19 Sep · Premier League 0-1 W
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Premier League Everton 3-1 Coventry
20 Jan 01 · Premier League Coventry 1-3 Everton
26 Dec 00 · Premier League Everton 1-2 Coventry
15 Mar 00 · Premier League Coventry 1-0 Everton
02 Oct 99 · Premier League Everton 1-1 Coventry