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First Division
Sogndal vs Hødd
Sun 08 Nov 14:00 0 minutes final 0–0 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 88.5%
why
• league OK (65.0%, n=60)
• type ledger 80% (n=1980)
league track
ok · 65.0% of 60 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 52.4%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 26/26 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1980, 90d ledger)
measured band: 84.9% (n=292)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
88.5%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Safer
86.6%
Home, draw refunds
safest leg we would still back — lower variance, smaller payout.
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
74.0%
Draw
14.6%
Away win
11.5%
calibrated 08 Nov 10:38
scoring fit λ 2.66 / μ 0.96
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 187 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
11.5%
|
8.73x | 49.7% n=187 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
14.6%
|
6.85x | 49.7% n=187 | risky | won |
| top Home win |
74.0%
|
1.35x | 49.7% n=187 | solid | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 10 meetings — Sogndal 3W / 4D / 3L
· momentum Sogndal 1.33 ppg vs Hødd 0.83 ppg
Sogndal · last 6
08 Nov · First Division
0-0
D
01 Nov · First Division
2-1
L
28 Oct · NM Cupen
2-1
L
25 Oct · First Division
3-1
W
21 Oct · First Division
2-1
W
18 Oct · First Division
3-3
D
Hødd · last 6
08 Nov · First Division
0-0
D
01 Nov · First Division
0-3
L
28 Oct · NM Cupen
3-0
L
25 Oct · First Division
3-2
L
18 Oct · First Division
5-1
W
14 Oct · First Division
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · First Division
Sogndal 0-0 Hødd
16 May 26 · First Division
Hødd 2-2 Sogndal
28 Feb 26 · Friendlies Clubs
Hødd 1-5 Sogndal
06 Aug 25 · First Division
Sogndal 2-1 Hødd
11 May 25 · First Division
Hødd 2-1 Sogndal