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League One
Ross County FC vs Peterhead
Sat 07 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 1–0 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.5%
why
• league OK (71.4%, n=14)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 71.4% of 14 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 45.4%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 31/29 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4488)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.5%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
73.0%
Draw
22.3%
Away win
4.7%
calibrated 07 Nov 16:39
scoring fit λ 2.63 / μ 0.77
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 538 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
4.7%
|
21.46x | 46.8% n=538 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
22.3%
|
4.48x | 46.8% n=538 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
73.0%
|
1.37x | 46.8% n=538 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 6 meetings — Ross County FC 5W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Ross County… 3.0 ppg vs Peterhead 2.0 ppg
Ross County FC · last 6
07 Nov · League One
1-0
W
03 Nov · Challenge Cup
2-0
W
31 Oct · League One
0-1
W
24 Oct · League One
4-0
W
17 Oct · League One
1-7
W
13 Oct · Challenge Cup
2-1
W
Peterhead · last 6
07 Nov · League One
1-0
L
03 Nov · Challenge Cup
1-2
W
31 Oct · League One
1-0
W
24 Oct · League One
3-0
L
17 Oct · League One
2-0
W
13 Oct · Challenge Cup
1-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · League One
Ross County FC 1-0 Peterhead
01 Aug 26 · League One
Peterhead 0-1 Ross County FC
01 Mar 08 · League One
Peterhead 1-1 Ross County FC
02 Jan 08 · League One
Ross County FC 5-1 Peterhead
03 Nov 07 · League One
Peterhead 1-2 Ross County FC