HOME
Premiership

Heart of Midlothian vs Falkirk

Sun 08 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 2–5 · 0 won · 2 lost
AWAY
back to predictions
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 82.5%
book 1.22x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (75.0%, n=28)
• type ledger 80% (n=1980)
• short price 1.22x
league track
proven · 75.0% of 28 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.6%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 28/21 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1980, 90d ledger)
measured band: 82.0% (n=423)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
82.5%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Under 3.5 goals lean (62.8%)
@ 08 Nov 17:27 · 1.61x
board also had Under 5.5 goals 89.6% pick lost
Home or Draw solid (82.5%)
@ 08 Nov 17:27 · 1.22x
board also had Under 5.5 goals 89.6% pick lost
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
63.1%
Draw
19.4%
Away win
17.5%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:27
scoring fit λ 2.01 / μ 0.94
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 239 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
17.5%
5.71x 53.6% n=239 risky won
Draw
19.4%
5.16x 53.6% n=239 risky lost
top Home win
63.1%
1.58x 53.6% n=239 lean lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 34 meetings — Heart of Midl… 16W / 7D / 11L · momentum Heart of Mi… 0.67 ppg vs Falkirk 2.5 ppg
Heart of Midlothian · last 6
08 Nov · Premiership 2-5 L
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 3-1 L
01 Nov · League Cup 1-2 L
28 Oct · Premiership 2-2 D
25 Oct · Premiership 0-2 W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 2-0 L
Falkirk · last 6
08 Nov · Premiership 2-5 W
31 Oct · Premiership 1-0 W
28 Oct · Premiership 0-1 W
24 Oct · Premiership 3-0 W
17 Oct · Premiership 1-2 W
10 Oct · Premiership 1-2 L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Premiership Heart of Midlot… 2-5 Falkirk
15 Sep 26 · Premiership Falkirk 2-1 Heart of Midlot…
13 May 26 · Premiership Heart of Midlot… 3-0 Falkirk
21 Feb 26 · Premiership Heart of Midlot… 1-0 Falkirk
17 Jan 26 · FA Cup Heart of Midlot… 1-1 Falkirk