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Azerbaijan Premier League

Neftchi Baku vs Kəpəz

Sat 07 Nov 18:00 0 minutes final 1–0 · 2 won · 0 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 90.2%
book 1.15x · short <1.30x
why
• league OK (69.6%, n=23)
• type ledger 80% (n=1994)
• short price 1.15x
• SELECT 90%+ (measured >=88%)
league track
ok · 69.6% of 23 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 49.1%)
draws 30.0% of matches
team history 17/13 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1994, 90d ledger)
measured band: 90.9% (n=164)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2529)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
90.2%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins solid (81.4%)
@ 06 Nov 18:04 · 1.28x
board also had Home or Draw 90.2% pick won
Home or Draw solid (90.2%)
@ 06 Nov 18:04 · 1.15x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
71.6%
Draw
18.6%
Away win
9.8%
calibrated 06 Nov 18:04
scoring fit λ 2.17 / μ 0.67
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 52 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
9.8%
10.19x 57.7% n=52 risky lost
Draw
18.6%
5.37x 57.7% n=52 risky lost
top Home win
71.6%
1.4x 57.7% n=52 solid won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 11 meetings — Neftchi Baku 8W / 1D / 2L · momentum Neftchi Baku 2.0 ppg vs Kəpəz 2.17 ppg
Neftchi Baku · last 6
07 Nov · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 1-0 W
31 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 2-3 W
24 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 1-1 D
17 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 3-3 D
09 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 0-0 D
18 Sep · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 0-3 W
Kəpəz · last 6
07 Nov · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 1-0 L
31 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 1-0 W
28 Oct · Cup 3-1 W
24 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 1-2 W
18 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 1-1 D
09 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 0-2 W
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Azerbaijan Premier Le… Neftchi Baku 1-0 Kəpəz
23 May 26 · Azerbaijan Premier Le… Kəpəz 0-1 Neftchi Baku
15 Feb 26 · Azerbaijan Premier Le… Kəpəz 1-3 Neftchi Baku
01 Nov 25 · Azerbaijan Premier Le… Neftchi Baku 5-1 Kəpəz
04 May 25 · Azerbaijan Premier Le… Neftchi Baku 2-2 Kəpəz
Tickets including this match
VALUE win chance 77.4% VOID VALUE win chance 77.1% VOID VALUE win chance 77.1% VOID VALUE win chance 77.1% VOID