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USL Super League

Dallas Trinity Women vs Sporting JAX

Sun 08 Nov 00:00 0 minutes final 1–1 · 0 won · 1 lost
Sp
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 76.3%
book 1.40x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league OK (55.0%, n=20)
• type ledger 75% (n=2258)
• priced 1.40x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
ok · 55.0% of 20 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 34.2%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 13/21 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2258, 90d ledger)
measured band: 74.8% (n=938)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.3% hit (n=473)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
76.3%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Safer
67.4%
Draw or Away
safest leg we would still back — lower variance, smaller payout.
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins solid (76.3%)
@ 09 Nov 00:19 · 1.40x
board also had Under 4.5 goals 83.3% pick lost
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
32.6%
Draw
23.7%
Away win
43.7%
calibrated 09 Nov 00:19
scoring fit λ 1.35 / μ 1.60
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 130 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
43.7%
2.29x 48.5% n=130 risky lost
Draw
23.7%
4.21x 48.5% n=130 risky won
Home win
32.6%
3.07x 48.5% n=130 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 5 meetings — Dallas Trinit… 1W / 1D / 3L · momentum Dallas Trin… 1.33 ppg vs Sporting JAX 1.17 ppg
Dallas Trinity Women · last 6
09 Nov · USL Super League 1-1 D
02 Nov · USL Super League 3-0 W
25 Oct · USL Super League 1-0 L
10 Oct · USL Super League 1-1 D
26 Sep · USL Super League 3-0 L
19 Sep · USL Super League 1-2 W
Sporting JAX · last 6
09 Nov · USL Super League 1-1 D
31 Oct · USL Super League 4-4 D
24 Oct · USL Super League 3-3 D
17 Oct · USL Super League 4-1 W
27 Sep · USL Super League 3-3 D
20 Sep · USL Super League 0-1 L
Head-to-head last 5
09 Nov 26 · USL Super League Dallas Trinity … 1-1 Sporting JAX
30 Aug 26 · USL Super League Sporting JAX 2-0 Dallas Trinity …
23 Mar 26 · USL Super League Dallas Trinity … 0-4 Sporting JAX
09 Nov 25 · USL Super League Dallas Trinity … 0-2 Sporting JAX
07 Sep 25 · USL Super League Sporting JAX 0-1 Dallas Trinity …