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Youth Championship
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 vs Spartak Moskva U19
Fri 06 Nov 12:00 0 minutes final 3–0 · 1 won · 0 lostSp
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 86.2%
why
• league PROVEN (73.3%, n=60)
• type ledger 75% (n=2265)
league track
proven · 73.3% of 60 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 61.0%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 20/20 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2265, 90d ledger)
measured band: 80.0% (n=305)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
86.2%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Safer
80.2%
Home, draw refunds
safest leg we would still back — lower variance, smaller payout.
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (86.2%)
@ 06 Nov 10:45
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
69.1%
Draw
13.9%
Away win
17.1%
calibrated 06 Nov 10:45
scoring fit λ 2.54 / μ 1.16
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 244 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
17.1%
|
5.86x | 59.0% n=244 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
13.9%
|
7.22x | 59.0% n=244 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
69.1%
|
1.45x | 59.0% n=244 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Lokomotiv Mos… 6W / 3D / 3L
· momentum Lokomotiv M… 1.5 ppg vs Spartak Mos… 0.67 ppg
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 · last 6
06 Nov · Youth Championship
3-0
W
30 Oct · Youth Championship
5-2
W
23 Oct · Youth Championship
1-3
L
16 Oct · Youth Championship
5-7
W
09 Oct · Youth Championship
1-3
L
18 Sep · Youth Championship
3-0
L
Spartak Moskva U19 · last 6
06 Nov · Youth Championship
3-0
L
30 Oct · Youth Championship
0-1
W
23 Oct · Youth Championship
2-2
D
16 Oct · Youth Championship
4-2
L
09 Oct · Youth Championship
0-1
L
18 Sep · Youth Championship
3-2
L
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Youth Championship
Lokomotiv Moskv… 3-0 Spartak Moskva …
17 Jul 26 · Youth Championship
Spartak Moskva … 1-4 Lokomotiv Moskv…
01 Aug 25 · Youth Championship
Spartak Moskva … 0-0 Lokomotiv Moskv…
14 Mar 25 · Youth Championship
Lokomotiv Moskv… 1-0 Spartak Moskva …
28 Jun 24 · Youth Championship
Lokomotiv Moskv… 0-2 Spartak Moskva …