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Azerbaijan Premier League

Zira vs Qabala

Sat 07 Nov 16:30 0 minutes final 1–1 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 87.5%
why
• league OK (69.6%, n=23)
• type ledger 80% (n=1986)
league track
ok · 69.6% of 23 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 49.1%)
draws 30.0% of matches
team history 19/15 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1986, 90d ledger)
measured band: 85.0% (n=293)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3031)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
87.5%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
62.2%
Draw
25.3%
Away win
12.5%
calibrated 07 Nov 16:38
scoring fit λ 1.92 / μ 0.78
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 52 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
12.5%
8.0x 57.7% n=52 risky lost
Draw
25.3%
3.96x 57.7% n=52 risky won
top Home win
62.2%
1.61x 57.7% n=52 lean lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — Zira 7W / 3D / 3L · momentum Zira 1.33 ppg vs Qabala 1.33 ppg
Zira · last 6
07 Nov · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 1-1 D
31 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 2-2 D
27 Oct · Cup 2-2 D
23 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 3-2 W
18 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 1-1 D
10 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 1-1 D
Qabala · last 6
07 Nov · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 1-1 D
31 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 0-0 D
27 Oct · Cup 3-0 W
23 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 1-2 W
17 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 0-4 L
10 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 4-1 L
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Azerbaijan Premier Le… Zira 1-1 Qabala
03 May 26 · Azerbaijan Premier Le… Zira 1-0 Qabala
22 Nov 25 · Azerbaijan Premier Le… Zira 1-0 Qabala
25 Aug 25 · Azerbaijan Premier Le… Qabala 1-2 Zira
24 Apr 24 · Cup Qabala 0-2 Zira
Tickets including this match
VALUE win chance 74.9% VOID VALUE win chance 74.9% VOID VALUE win chance 74.9% VOID VALUE win chance 74.5% VOID VALUE win chance 72.6% VOID VALUE win chance 72.9% VOID