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Liga MX
Querétaro vs Puebla
Today 02:00 0 minutes final 0–2 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 93.4%
why
• league PROVEN (77.1%, n=48)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 77.1% of 48 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 63.5%)
draws 30.0% of matches
team history 20/22 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.3% hit (n=473)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.4%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
48.4%
Draw
25.5%
Away win
26.1%
calibrated 09 Nov 00:18
scoring fit λ 1.65 / μ 1.15
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 326 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
26.1%
|
3.84x | 47.5% n=326 | risky | won |
| Draw |
25.5%
|
3.92x | 47.5% n=326 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
48.4%
|
2.06x | 47.5% n=326 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Querétaro 4W / 3D / 5L
· momentum Querétaro 0.5 ppg vs Puebla 0.83 ppg
Querétaro · last 6
09 Nov · Liga MX
0-2
L
31 Oct · Liga MX
3-1
L
26 Oct · Liga MX
1-3
L
21 Oct · Liga MX
2-1
L
18 Oct · Liga MX
5-0
L
11 Oct · Liga MX
2-0
W
Puebla · last 6
09 Nov · Liga MX
0-2
W
31 Oct · Liga MX
1-2
L
26 Oct · Liga MX
4-3
L
22 Oct · Liga MX
1-4
L
17 Oct · Liga MX
0-0
D
10 Oct · Liga MX
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
09 Nov 26 · Liga MX
Querétaro 0-2 Puebla
25 Apr 26 · Liga MX
Puebla 1-2 Querétaro
05 Oct 25 · Liga MX
Querétaro 3-1 Puebla
03 Mar 25 · Liga MX
Querétaro 2-0 Puebla
14 Sep 24 · Liga MX
Puebla 2-1 Querétaro