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Challenger Pro League
Lierse Kempenzonen vs AS Eupen
Sun 08 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 2–3 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Draw or Away · 79.0%
book 1.31x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league OK (76.2%, n=21)
• type ledger 77% (n=658)
• priced 1.31x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
ok · 76.2% of 21 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 54.9%)
draws 18.3% of matches
team history 15/15 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 76.6% hit (n=658, 90d ledger)
measured band: 77.3% (n=128)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
79.0%
Draw or Away
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Draw or Away
solid (79.0%)
@ 08 Nov 17:28 · 1.31x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
21.1%
Draw
23.9%
Away win
55.0%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:28
scoring fit λ 1.02 / μ 1.79
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 06 Nov · 332 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
55.0%
|
1.82x | 54.2% n=332 | lean | won |
| Draw |
23.9%
|
4.18x | 54.2% n=332 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
21.0%
|
4.75x | 54.2% n=332 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 5 meetings — Lierse Kempen… 4W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Lierse Kemp… 0.5 ppg vs AS Eupen 1.5 ppg
Lierse Kempenzonen · last 6
08 Nov · Challenger Pro League
2-3
L
30 Oct · Challenger Pro League
2-0
L
23 Oct · Challenger Pro League
1-0
L
10 Oct · Challenger Pro League
3-0
W
27 Sep · Cup
3-2
L
11 Sep · Challenger Pro League
3-1
L
AS Eupen · last 6
08 Nov · Challenger Pro League
2-3
W
01 Nov · Challenger Pro League
1-2
L
25 Oct · Challenger Pro League
1-2
L
18 Oct · Cup
5-1
L
09 Oct · Challenger Pro League
0-2
W
01 Oct · Friendlies Clubs
3-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Challenger Pro League
Lierse Kempenzo… 2-3 AS Eupen
10 Mar 26 · Challenger Pro League
AS Eupen 0-1 Lierse Kempenzo…
23 Aug 25 · Challenger Pro League
Lierse Kempenzo… 3-2 AS Eupen
09 Feb 25 · Challenger Pro League
AS Eupen 1-3 Lierse Kempenzo…
21 Sep 24 · Challenger Pro League
Lierse Kempenzo… 3-0 AS Eupen