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Liga MX
León FC vs Guadalajara Chivas
Today 04:00 36 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 93.6%
why
• league PROVEN (77.1%, n=48)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 77.1% of 48 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 63.5%)
draws 31.7% of matches
team history 23/22 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.1% hit (n=469)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.6%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
28.4%
Draw
26.8%
Away win
44.8%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:52
scoring fit λ 1.33 / μ 1.70
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 326 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
44.8%
|
2.23x | 47.5% n=326 | risky |
| Draw |
26.8%
|
3.73x | 47.5% n=326 | risky |
| Home win |
28.4%
|
3.52x | 47.5% n=326 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — León FC 1W / 0D / 1L
· momentum León FC 1.5 ppg vs Guadalajara… 2.33 ppg
León FC · last 6
02 Nov · Liga MX
0-0
D
25 Oct · Liga MX
1-1
D
21 Oct · Liga MX
0-2
W
18 Oct · Liga MX
3-5
L
10 Oct · Liga MX
1-1
D
28 Sep · Liga MX
2-1
W
Guadalajara Chivas · last 6
01 Nov · Liga MX
4-2
W
25 Oct · Liga MX
0-1
W
21 Oct · Liga MX
1-0
W
18 Oct · Liga MX
1-1
D
11 Oct · Liga MX
1-1
D
05 Oct · Friendlies Clubs
2-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
19 Mar 26 · Liga MX
Guadalajara Chi… 5-0 León FC
20 Jul 25 · Liga MX
León FC 1-0 Guadalajara Chi…