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1. Liga Promotion
Young Boys II vs Bellinzona
Sun 08 Nov 15:00 0 minutes final 3–2 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 93.5%
why
• league PROVEN (92.6%, n=27)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 92.6% of 27 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 76.6%)
draws 18.3% of matches
team history 18/17 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.3% (n=1742)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.5%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
43.0%
Draw
25.5%
Away win
31.4%
calibrated 08 Nov 10:37
scoring fit λ 1.89 / μ 1.60
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 29 Oct · 458 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
31.5%
|
3.18x | 51.5% n=458 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
25.5%
|
3.92x | 51.5% n=458 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
43.0%
|
2.32x | 51.5% n=458 | risky | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Young Boys II 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Young Boys … 1.17 ppg vs Bellinzona 1.17 ppg
Young Boys II · last 6
08 Nov · 1. Liga Promotion
3-2
W
31 Oct · 1. Liga Promotion
2-1
L
25 Oct · 1. Liga Promotion
5-2
W
17 Oct · 1. Liga Promotion
2-2
D
10 Oct · 1. Liga Promotion
1-3
L
03 Oct · 1. Liga Promotion
6-3
L
Bellinzona · last 6
08 Nov · 1. Liga Promotion
3-2
L
01 Nov · 1. Liga Promotion
0-1
L
25 Oct · 1. Liga Promotion
1-1
D
21 Oct · 1. Liga Promotion
2-0
W
16 Oct · Friendlies Clubs
2-0
W
10 Oct · 1. Liga Promotion
2-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · 1. Liga Promotion
Young Boys II 3-2 Bellinzona
Tickets including this match