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FAW Championship
Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town
Fri 06 Nov 21:45 0 minutes final 1–3 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 92.1%
why
• league PROVEN (74.2%, n=31)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 74.2% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.8%)
draws 31.7% of matches
team history 15/13 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2528)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.1%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
46.8%
Draw
17.9%
Away win
35.3%
calibrated 06 Nov 17:54
scoring fit λ 1.98 / μ 1.69
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 467 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
35.3%
|
2.83x | 54.2% n=467 | risky | won |
| Draw |
17.9%
|
5.58x | 54.2% n=467 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
46.8%
|
2.14x | 54.2% n=467 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 4 meetings — Caerau (Ely) 1W / 0D / 3L
· momentum Caerau (Ely) 2.0 ppg vs Pontypridd … 1.83 ppg
Caerau (Ely) · last 6
06 Nov · FAW Championship
1-3
L
30 Oct · FAW Championship
0-1
W
23 Oct · FAW Championship
0-2
L
16 Oct · Welsh Cup
6-0
W
10 Oct · FAW Championship
0-1
W
02 Oct · FAW Championship
2-0
W
Pontypridd Town · last 6
06 Nov · FAW Championship
1-3
W
30 Oct · FAW Championship
4-0
W
23 Oct · FAW Championship
4-4
D
10 Oct · FAW Championship
1-1
D
06 Oct · FAW Championship
4-1
W
03 Oct · FAW Championship
1-3
L
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · FAW Championship
Caerau (Ely) 1-3 Pontypridd Town
25 Aug 25 · FAW Championship
Caerau (Ely) 2-0 Pontypridd Town
04 Feb 25 · FAW Championship
Caerau (Ely) 0-1 Pontypridd Town
23 Aug 24 · FAW Championship
Pontypridd Town 1-0 Caerau (Ely)
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