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Premier League
Trefelin vs Colwyn Bay
Fri 06 Nov 21:45 0 minutes final 1–2 · 2 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Draw or Away · 91.1%
book 1.11x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (85.3%, n=34)
• type ledger 77% (n=658)
• short price 1.11x
league track
proven · 85.3% of 34 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 69.9%)
draws 11.7% of matches
team history 18/23 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 76.6% hit (n=658, 90d ledger)
measured band: 94.1% (n=34)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2528)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
91.1%
Draw or Away
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Under 3.5 goals
lean (60.1%)
@ 06 Nov 18:09 · 1.58x
board also had Draw or Away 91.1%
pick won
Draw or Away
solid (91.1%)
@ 06 Nov 18:09 · 1.11x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
8.9%
Draw
17.3%
Away win
73.8%
calibrated 06 Nov 18:09
scoring fit λ 0.75 / μ 2.43
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
73.8%
|
1.35x | 67.7% n=31 | solid | won |
| Draw |
17.3%
|
5.78x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
8.9%
|
11.23x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — Trefelin 0W / 0D / 2L
· momentum Trefelin 1.0 ppg vs Colwyn Bay 1.83 ppg
Trefelin · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League
1-2
L
30 Oct · Premier League
3-0
L
23 Oct · Premier League
0-2
L
17 Oct · Welsh Cup
4-1
W
09 Oct · Premier League
1-3
W
03 Oct · Premier League
3-0
L
Colwyn Bay · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League
1-2
W
30 Oct · Premier League
2-0
W
23 Oct · Premier League
2-2
D
17 Oct · Welsh Cup
2-2
D
10 Oct · Premier League
0-1
W
03 Oct · Premier League
1-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Premier League
Trefelin 1-2 Colwyn Bay
31 Jul 26 · Premier League
Colwyn Bay 2-0 Trefelin