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FAW Championship
Trethomas Bluebirds vs Llantwit Major
Sat 07 Nov 16:00 0 minutes final 2–2 · settledLl
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 92.8%
why
• league PROVEN (74.2%, n=31)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 74.2% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.8%)
draws 31.7% of matches
team history 15/13 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.8%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
53.0%
Draw
18.1%
Away win
29.0%
calibrated 07 Nov 16:33
scoring fit λ 2.09 / μ 1.49
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 467 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
29.0%
|
3.45x | 54.2% n=467 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
18.0%
|
5.54x | 54.2% n=467 | risky | won |
| top Home win |
53.0%
|
1.89x | 54.2% n=467 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 5 meetings — Trethomas Blu… 1W / 3D / 1L
· momentum Trethomas B… 1.17 ppg vs Llantwit Ma… 0.83 ppg
Trethomas Bluebirds · last 6
07 Nov · FAW Championship
2-2
D
31 Oct · FAW Championship
2-1
L
23 Oct · FAW Championship
3-1
W
16 Oct · Welsh Cup
5-0
L
10 Oct · FAW Championship
1-3
W
03 Oct · FAW Championship
2-3
L
Llantwit Major · last 6
07 Nov · FAW Championship
2-2
D
31 Oct · FAW Championship
2-3
L
23 Oct · FAW Championship
0-2
W
17 Oct · Welsh Cup
4-1
L
10 Oct · FAW Championship
1-1
D
06 Oct · FAW Championship
4-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · FAW Championship
Trethomas Blueb… 2-2 Llantwit Major
05 Dec 25 · FAW Championship
Trethomas Blueb… 2-2 Llantwit Major
06 Sep 25 · FAW Championship
Llantwit Major 2-1 Trethomas Blueb…
27 Sep 24 · FAW Championship
Trethomas Blueb… 1-1 Llantwit Major
27 Jul 24 · FAW Championship
Llantwit Major 0-1 Trethomas Blueb…