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FAW Championship
Afan Lido vs Caerphilly Athletic
Fri 06 Nov 21:30 0 minutes final 3–2 · settledCa
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 88.4%
why
• league PROVEN (74.2%, n=31)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 74.2% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.8%)
draws 31.7% of matches
team history 15/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 89.0% (n=1714)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2529)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
88.4%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
37.6%
Draw
17.9%
Away win
44.5%
calibrated 06 Nov 17:54
scoring fit λ 1.47 / μ 1.63
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 467 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
44.5%
|
2.25x | 54.2% n=467 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
17.9%
|
5.57x | 54.2% n=467 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
37.6%
|
2.66x | 54.2% n=467 | risky | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Afan Lido 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Afan Lido 1.17 ppg vs Caerphilly … 1.5 ppg
Afan Lido · last 6
06 Nov · FAW Championship
3-2
W
31 Oct · FAW Championship
2-0
L
23 Oct · FAW Championship
0-3
W
18 Oct · Welsh Cup
2-3
L
09 Oct · FAW Championship
5-5
D
02 Oct · FAW Championship
2-0
L
Caerphilly Athletic · last 6
06 Nov · FAW Championship
3-2
L
30 Oct · FAW Championship
0-1
L
23 Oct · FAW Championship
1-3
W
17 Oct · Welsh Cup
1-0
W
09 Oct · FAW Championship
3-2
W
03 Oct · FAW Championship
3-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · FAW Championship
Afan Lido 3-2 Caerphilly Athl…
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