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FAW Championship

Rhyl vs Holyhead Hotspur

Sat 07 Nov 16:00 0 minutes final 1–1 · settled
Ho
AWAY
back to predictions
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 87.4%
why
• league PROVEN (74.2%, n=31)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 74.2% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.8%)
draws 31.7% of matches
team history 16/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 89.0% (n=1714)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
87.4%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
42.5%
Draw
18.8%
Away win
38.7%
calibrated 07 Nov 10:56
scoring fit λ 1.66 / μ 1.57
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 467 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
38.7%
2.58x 54.2% n=467 risky lost
Draw
18.8%
5.32x 54.2% n=467 risky won
top Home win
42.5%
2.35x 54.2% n=467 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 3 meetings — Rhyl 1W / 1D / 1L · momentum Rhyl 0.5 ppg vs Holyhead Ho… 2.33 ppg
Rhyl · last 6
07 Nov · FAW Championship 1-1 D
31 Oct · FAW Championship 2-1 L
24 Oct · FAW Championship 2-2 D
09 Oct · FAW Championship 1-1 D
03 Oct · FAW Championship 2-3 L
26 Sep · FAW Championship 3-1 L
Holyhead Hotspur · last 6
07 Nov · FAW Championship 1-1 D
31 Oct · FAW Championship 3-1 W
24 Oct · FAW Championship 0-2 W
17 Oct · Welsh Cup 3-4 W
10 Oct · FAW Championship 1-1 D
02 Oct · FAW Championship 2-4 W
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · FAW Championship Rhyl 1-1 Holyhead Hotspur
26 Dec 25 · FAW Championship Holyhead Hotspur 3-1 Rhyl
25 Aug 25 · FAW Championship Rhyl 4-3 Holyhead Hotspur
Tickets including this match
VALUE win chance 73.4% VOID VALUE win chance 72.7% VOID VALUE win chance 72.7% VOID VALUE win chance 72.7% VOID VALUE win chance 72.7% VOID VALUE win chance 72.7% VOID