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Carioca - 2
Serrano RJ vs São Cristóvão RJ
Sat 07 Nov 20:00 0 minutes final 1–0 · 1 won · 0 lostSã
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 88.3%
why
• league PROVEN (77.3%, n=22)
• type ledger 79% (n=1997)
league track
proven · 77.3% of 22 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.6%)
draws 30.0% of matches
team history 21/13 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.0% hit (n=1997, 90d ledger)
measured band: 84.3% (n=293)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
88.3%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (88.3%)
@ 07 Nov 18:02
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
57.3%
Draw
30.9%
Away win
11.7%
calibrated 07 Nov 18:02
scoring fit λ 1.50 / μ 0.58
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 01 Nov · 96 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
11.7%
|
8.52x | 39.6% n=96 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
30.9%
|
3.23x | 39.6% n=96 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
57.3%
|
1.75x | 39.6% n=96 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 5 meetings — Serrano RJ 4W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Serrano RJ 2.67 ppg vs São Cristóv… 0.83 ppg
Serrano RJ · last 6
07 Nov · Carioca - 2
1-0
W
31 Oct · Carioca - 2
1-2
W
24 Oct · Carioca - 2
1-0
W
20 Oct · Carioca - 2
1-1
D
17 Oct · Carioca - 2
3-0
W
10 Oct · Carioca - 2
1-0
W
São Cristóvão RJ · last 6
07 Nov · Carioca - 2
1-0
L
31 Oct · Carioca - 2
2-1
W
24 Oct · Carioca - 2
1-0
L
21 Oct · Carioca - 2
0-0
D
17 Oct · Carioca - 2
1-0
L
10 Oct · Carioca - 2
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Carioca - 2
Serrano RJ 1-0 São Cristóvão RJ
22 Nov 25 · Carioca - 2
São Cristóvão RJ 0-1 Serrano RJ
15 Nov 25 · Carioca - 2
Serrano RJ 1-0 São Cristóvão RJ
05 Nov 25 · Carioca - 2
Serrano RJ 2-2 São Cristóvão RJ
28 Sep 24 · Carioca - 2
Serrano RJ 1-0 São Cristóvão RJ
Tickets including this match