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FAW Championship
Ruthin Town vs Newtown AFC
Fri 06 Nov 21:45 0 minutes final 0–2 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.9%
why
• league PROVEN (74.2%, n=31)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 74.2% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.8%)
draws 31.7% of matches
team history 13/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4488)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2528)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.9%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
18.9%
Draw
16.6%
Away win
64.5%
calibrated 06 Nov 17:54
scoring fit λ 0.97 / μ 2.06
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 467 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
64.5%
|
1.55x | 54.2% n=467 | lean | won |
| Draw |
16.6%
|
6.02x | 54.2% n=467 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
18.9%
|
5.29x | 54.2% n=467 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — Ruthin Town 0W / 0D / 2L
· momentum Ruthin Town 1.33 ppg vs Newtown AFC 2.33 ppg
Ruthin Town · last 6
06 Nov · FAW Championship
0-2
L
31 Oct · FAW Championship
1-2
W
09 Oct · FAW Championship
1-1
D
03 Oct · FAW Championship
1-1
D
25 Sep · FAW Championship
2-0
W
12 Sep · FAW Championship
3-0
L
Newtown AFC · last 6
06 Nov · FAW Championship
0-2
W
31 Oct · FAW Championship
2-0
W
24 Oct · FAW Championship
2-2
D
17 Oct · Welsh Cup
7-0
W
10 Oct · FAW Championship
0-0
D
03 Oct · FAW Championship
1-2
W
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · FAW Championship
Ruthin Town 0-2 Newtown AFC
25 Jul 25 · FAW Championship
Newtown AFC 3-0 Ruthin Town
Tickets including this match