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FAW Championship

Penrhyncoch vs Caersws

Fri 06 Nov 21:45 0 minutes final 0–3 · settled
Ca
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 94.3%
why
• league PROVEN (73.3%, n=30)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 73.3% of 30 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 55.6%)
draws 31.7% of matches
team history 13/13 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1957)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.3%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
22.4%
Draw
17.1%
Away win
60.6%
calibrated 06 Nov 17:54
scoring fit λ 1.22 / μ 2.17
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 467 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
60.6%
1.65x 54.2% n=467 lean won
Draw
17.1%
5.87x 54.2% n=467 risky lost
Home win
22.4%
4.47x 54.2% n=467 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 6 meetings — Penrhyncoch 3W / 1D / 2L · momentum Penrhyncoch 0.0 ppg vs Caersws 1.67 ppg
Penrhyncoch · last 6
06 Nov · FAW Championship 0-3 L
31 Oct · FAW Championship 3-1 L
10 Oct · FAW Championship 4-1 L
03 Oct · FAW Championship 0-1 L
25 Sep · FAW Championship 2-0 L
15 Sep · FAW Championship 0-1 L
Caersws · last 6
06 Nov · FAW Championship 0-3 W
31 Oct · FAW Championship 1-1 D
24 Oct · FAW Championship 2-2 D
10 Oct · FAW Championship 1-1 D
03 Oct · FAW Championship 3-3 D
26 Sep · FAW Championship 2-5 W
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · FAW Championship Penrhyncoch 0-3 Caersws
06 Apr 26 · FAW Championship Caersws 1-2 Penrhyncoch
04 Feb 26 · FAW Championship Penrhyncoch 1-3 Caersws
01 Mar 25 · FAW Championship Caersws 1-2 Penrhyncoch
18 Feb 25 · FAW Championship Penrhyncoch 4-1 Caersws