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WSL Cup
Everton Women vs Durham Women
Wed 11 Nov 21:00 2 days, 17 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 93.1%
why
• league PROVEN (88.0%, n=25)
• type ledger 75% (n=2256)
league track
proven · 88.0% of 25 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 70.0%)
draws 15.0% of matches
team history 13/11 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.0% hit (n=2256, 90d ledger)
measured band: 87.7% (n=57)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
93.1%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (93.1%)
@ 09 Nov 02:53
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
91.1%
Draw
6.9%
Away win
2.0%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 2.99 / μ 0.26
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
2.0%
|
51.0x | – | risky |
| Draw |
6.9%
|
14.4x | – | risky |
| top Home win |
91.1%
|
1.1x | – | solid |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Everton Wom… 1.33 ppg vs Durham Women 0.0 ppg
Everton Women · last 6
07 Nov · FA WSL
1-1
D
31 Oct · FA WSL
0-0
D
28 Oct · WSL Cup
1-2
W
25 Oct · FA WSL
2-3
L
21 Oct · WSL Cup
2-0
W
18 Oct · FA WSL
2-1
L
Durham Women · last 6
08 Nov · Women's Championship
1-4
L
01 Nov · WSL Cup
1-5
L
25 Oct · Women's Championship
4-2
L
21 Oct · WSL Cup
0-5
L
18 Oct · WSL Cup
3-2
L
04 Oct · Women's Championship
0-3
L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.