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WSL Cup
Liverpool Women vs Aston Villa Women
Tomorrow 21:00 19 hours, 7 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Draw or Away · 75.2%
why
• league PROVEN (88.0%, n=25)
• type ledger 77% (n=658)
league track
proven · 88.0% of 25 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 70.0%)
draws 15.0% of matches
team history 12/13 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 76.6% hit (n=658, 90d ledger)
measured band: 77.3% (n=128)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2539)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
75.2%
Draw or Away
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Draw or Away
solid (75.2%)
@ 10 Nov 23:54
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
24.8%
Draw
19.0%
Away win
56.3%
calibrated 10 Nov 23:54
scoring fit λ 1.44 / μ 2.24
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
56.3%
|
1.78x | – | lean |
| Draw |
19.0%
|
5.27x | – | risky |
| Home win |
24.7%
|
4.04x | – | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 10 meetings — Liverpool Wom… 4W / 2D / 4L
· momentum Liverpool W… 0.17 ppg vs Aston Villa… 2.17 ppg
Liverpool Women · last 6
07 Nov · FA WSL
1-2
L
01 Nov · FA WSL
4-1
L
25 Oct · FA WSL
2-2
D
21 Oct · WSL Cup
3-5
L
18 Oct · FA WSL
2-1
L
03 Oct · FA WSL
1-0
L
Aston Villa Women · last 6
07 Nov · FA WSL
0-1
L
01 Nov · FA WSL
0-1
W
28 Oct · WSL Cup
1-1
D
25 Oct · FA WSL
2-3
W
21 Oct · WSL Cup
0-2
W
18 Oct · FA WSL
2-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
18 Oct 26 · FA WSL
Aston Villa Wom… 2-1 Liverpool Women
08 Feb 26 · FA WSL
Liverpool Women 4-1 Aston Villa Wom…
11 Dec 25 · FA WSL
Aston Villa Wom… 3-0 Liverpool Women
30 Mar 25 · FA WSL
Liverpool Women 1-2 Aston Villa Wom…
03 Nov 24 · FA WSL
Aston Villa Wom… 1-2 Liverpool Women