HOME
WSL Cup
Birmingham City Women vs Sunderland Women
Tomorrow 21:00 1 day, 14 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 82.8%
why
• league PROVEN (88.0%, n=25)
• type ledger 80% (n=1995)
league track
proven · 88.0% of 25 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 70.0%)
draws 15.0% of matches
team history 13/10 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1995, 90d ledger)
measured band: 81.5% (n=427)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2529)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
82.8%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (82.8%)
@ 10 Nov 06:08
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
65.3%
Draw
17.5%
Away win
17.2%
calibrated 10 Nov 06:08
scoring fit λ 2.13 / μ 0.96
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
17.2%
|
5.81x | – | risky |
| Draw |
17.5%
|
5.71x | – | risky |
| top Home win |
65.3%
|
1.53x | – | lean |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 9 meetings — Birmingham Ci… 6W / 2D / 1L
· momentum Birmingham … 1.33 ppg vs Sunderland … 2.5 ppg
Birmingham City Women · last 6
07 Nov · FA WSL
4-1
L
01 Nov · FA WSL
1-4
L
28 Oct · WSL Cup
1-1
D
25 Oct · FA WSL
1-0
W
21 Oct · WSL Cup
0-5
W
17 Oct · FA WSL
1-1
D
Sunderland Women · last 6
08 Nov · Women's Championship
1-4
W
01 Nov · WSL Cup
1-0
W
25 Oct · Women's Championship
3-1
L
18 Oct · WSL Cup
0-1
W
04 Oct · Women's Championship
3-1
W
27 Sep · Women's Championship
1-2
W
Head-to-head last 5
01 Apr 26 · Women's Championship
Birmingham City… 1-0 Sunderland Women
14 Sep 25 · Women's Championship
Sunderland Women 1-1 Birmingham City…
02 Feb 25 · Women's Championship
Sunderland Women 0-1 Birmingham City…
08 Sep 24 · Women's Championship
Birmingham City… 5-0 Sunderland Women
17 Dec 23 · Women's Championship
Sunderland Women 0-3 Birmingham City…