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Premier League
Llandudno vs The New Saints
Fri 06 Nov 21:45 0 minutes final 0–1 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Either team wins · 86.7%
book 1.20x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (85.3%, n=34)
• type ledger 75% (n=2264)
• short price 1.20x
• draw bets in this league lose 42% at book prices (90d n=63)
league track
proven · 85.3% of 34 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 69.9%)
draws 11.7% of matches
team history 22/22 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2264, 90d ledger)
measured band: 80.0% (n=305)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.0% hit (n=2522)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
86.7%
Either team wins
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (86.7%)
@ 06 Nov 18:09 · 1.20x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
3.6%
Draw
13.3%
Away win
83.1%
calibrated 06 Nov 18:09
scoring fit λ 0.55 / μ 2.86
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
83.1%
|
1.2x | 67.7% n=31 | solid | won |
| Draw |
13.3%
|
7.53x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
3.6%
|
27.93x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 3 meetings — Llandudno 0W / 0D / 3L
· momentum Llandudno 0.5 ppg vs The New Sai… 2.67 ppg
Llandudno · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League
0-1
L
30 Oct · Premier League
3-0
L
24 Oct · Premier League
2-0
L
17 Oct · Welsh Cup
0-1
W
09 Oct · Premier League
1-4
L
03 Oct · Premier League
0-1
L
The New Saints · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League
0-1
W
31 Oct · Premier League
0-0
D
23 Oct · Premier League
9-0
W
16 Oct · Welsh Cup
1-2
W
09 Oct · Premier League
1-6
W
03 Oct · Premier League
9-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Premier League
Llandudno 0-1 The New Saints
19 Sep 26 · Premier League
The New Saints 2-1 Llandudno
06 Dec 25 · League Cup
The New Saints 2-1 Llandudno