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Liga 1
Pusamania Borneo vs PSM Makassar
Sat 07 Nov 10:30 0 minutes final 1–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 83.5%
book 1.24x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (74.5%, n=47)
• type ledger 80% (n=1994)
• short price 1.24x
league track
proven · 74.5% of 47 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 60.5%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 13/12 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1994, 90d ledger)
measured band: 81.5% (n=427)
morning 06-12 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=385)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
83.5%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (83.5%)
@ 07 Nov 10:58 · 1.24x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
62.1%
Draw
21.4%
Away win
16.6%
calibrated 07 Nov 10:58
scoring fit λ 2.03 / μ 0.95
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 101 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
16.6%
|
6.04x | 54.5% n=101 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
21.4%
|
4.67x | 54.5% n=101 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
62.1%
|
1.61x | 54.5% n=101 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — Pusamania Bor… 7W / 4D / 2L
· momentum Pusamania B… 2.0 ppg vs PSM Makassar 1.67 ppg
Pusamania Borneo · last 6
07 Nov · Liga 1
1-0
W
01 Nov · Liga 1
2-1
L
28 Oct · Liga 1
1-2
W
21 Oct · AFC Challenge League
1-3
W
18 Oct · AFC Challenge League
2-0
W
11 Oct · Liga 1
2-1
L
PSM Makassar · last 6
07 Nov · Liga 1
1-0
L
03 Nov · League Cup Indonesia
0-2
W
31 Oct · Liga 1
0-1
L
26 Oct · Liga 1
0-0
D
22 Oct · Liga 1
1-0
W
16 Oct · Liga 1
1-2
W
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Liga 1
Pusamania Borneo 1-0 PSM Makassar
18 Apr 26 · Liga 1
PSM Makassar 1-2 Pusamania Borneo
03 Jan 26 · Liga 1
Pusamania Borneo 2-1 PSM Makassar
18 Apr 25 · Liga 1
Pusamania Borneo 1-1 PSM Makassar
02 Dec 24 · Liga 1
PSM Makassar 1-0 Pusamania Borneo
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