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Liga 1
Persija Jakarta vs Persebaya Surabaya
Sat 07 Nov 14:00 0 minutes final 0–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 85.5%
book 1.25x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (74.5%, n=47)
• type ledger 80% (n=1994)
• short price 1.25x
league track
proven · 74.5% of 47 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 60.5%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 17/17 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1994, 90d ledger)
measured band: 85.0% (n=293)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
85.5%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (85.5%)
@ 07 Nov 10:58 · 1.25x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
63.6%
Draw
21.9%
Away win
14.5%
calibrated 07 Nov 10:58
scoring fit λ 2.04 / μ 0.88
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 101 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
14.5%
|
6.91x | 54.5% n=101 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
21.9%
|
4.57x | 54.5% n=101 | risky | won |
| top Home win |
63.6%
|
1.57x | 54.5% n=101 | lean | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — Persija Jakar… 4W / 6D / 3L
· momentum Persija Jak… 1.33 ppg vs Persebaya S… 1.0 ppg
Persija Jakarta · last 6
07 Nov · Liga 1
0-0
D
03 Nov · League Cup Indonesia
1-1
D
31 Oct · Liga 1
2-1
L
26 Oct · Liga 1
2-1
W
21 Oct · Liga 1
5-1
W
17 Oct · Liga 1
3-2
L
Persebaya Surabaya · last 6
07 Nov · Liga 1
0-0
D
03 Nov · League Cup Indonesia
3-2
L
30 Oct · Liga 1
1-1
D
26 Oct · Liga 1
3-1
W
22 Oct · Liga 1
1-0
L
18 Oct · Liga 1
2-2
D
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Liga 1
Persija Jakarta 0-0 Persebaya Surab…
26 Jul 26 · Piala Presiden
Persebaya Surab… 1-0 Persija Jakarta
11 Apr 26 · Liga 1
Persija Jakarta 3-0 Persebaya Surab…
18 Oct 25 · Liga 1
Persebaya Surab… 1-3 Persija Jakarta
12 Apr 25 · Liga 1
Persija Jakarta 1-1 Persebaya Surab…
Tickets including this match