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FAW Championship

Buckley Town vs Brickfield Rangers

Sat 07 Nov 16:00 0 minutes final 1–3 · settled
Br
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 93.9%
why
• league PROVEN (74.2%, n=31)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 74.2% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.8%)
draws 31.7% of matches
team history 16/15 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.9%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
31.8%
Draw
18.2%
Away win
50.0%
calibrated 07 Nov 10:56
scoring fit λ 1.50 / μ 1.94
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 467 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
50.0%
2.0x 54.2% n=467 risky won
Draw
18.2%
5.49x 54.2% n=467 risky lost
Home win
31.8%
3.15x 54.2% n=467 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 3 meetings — Buckley Town 0W / 0D / 3L · momentum Buckley Town 0.83 ppg vs Brickfield … 2.17 ppg
Buckley Town · last 6
07 Nov · FAW Championship 1-3 L
31 Oct · FAW Championship 2-0 L
24 Oct · FAW Championship 0-2 L
17 Oct · Welsh Cup 2-2 D
09 Oct · FAW Championship 2-3 W
03 Oct · FAW Championship 1-1 D
Brickfield Rangers · last 6
07 Nov · FAW Championship 1-3 W
31 Oct · FAW Championship 1-1 D
24 Oct · FAW Championship 0-1 W
17 Oct · Welsh Cup 2-0 W
10 Oct · FAW Championship 0-4 L
03 Oct · FAW Championship 2-3 W
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · FAW Championship Buckley Town 1-3 Brickfield Rang…
03 Apr 26 · FAW Championship Buckley Town 0-6 Brickfield Rang…
09 Aug 25 · FAW Championship Brickfield Rang… 4-0 Buckley Town
Tickets including this match
VALUE win chance 72.3% VOID VALUE win chance 72.4% VOID VALUE win chance 73.8% VOID