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Süper Lig
Besiktas vs Genclerbirligi
Sun 08 Nov 20:00 0 minutes final 3–0 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 93.9%
why
• league PROVEN (72.7%, n=33)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 72.7% of 33 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 55.8%)
draws 15.0% of matches
team history 26/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.9%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
76.4%
Draw
17.0%
Away win
6.7%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 2.41 / μ 0.61
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 297 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
6.7%
|
15.03x | 49.8% n=297 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
17.0%
|
5.89x | 49.8% n=297 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
76.4%
|
1.31x | 49.8% n=297 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 48 meetings — Besiktas 28W / 12D / 8L
· momentum Besiktas 1.33 ppg vs Genclerbirl… 1.17 ppg
Besiktas · last 6
08 Nov · Süper Lig
3-0
W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa League
3-2
L
01 Nov · Süper Lig
2-2
D
26 Oct · Süper Lig
2-0
W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa League
2-2
D
19 Oct · Süper Lig
2-0
L
Genclerbirligi · last 6
08 Nov · Süper Lig
3-0
L
02 Nov · Süper Lig
5-0
W
29 Oct · Cup
5-0
W
25 Oct · Süper Lig
2-0
L
17 Oct · Süper Lig
0-1
L
10 Oct · Süper Lig
2-2
D
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Süper Lig
Besiktas 3-0 Genclerbirligi
15 Mar 26 · Süper Lig
Genclerbirligi 0-2 Besiktas
18 Oct 25 · Süper Lig
Besiktas 1-2 Genclerbirligi
27 Jul 24 · Friendlies Clubs
Besiktas 2-0 Genclerbirligi
15 Feb 21 · Süper Lig
Genclerbirligi 0-3 Besiktas
Tickets including this match