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Premier League
Hearts of Oak vs Hearts U21
Sun 08 Nov 17:30 0 minutes final 3–0 · 1 won · 0 lostHe
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Either team wins · 75.8%
why
• league SUSPENDED (67.7%, n=31)
• type ledger 75% (n=2260)
• league's published legs underperform
league track
None · 67.7% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 50.1%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 12/12 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2260, 90d ledger)
measured band: 74.8% (n=938)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
75.8%
Either team wins
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (75.8%)
@ 08 Nov 17:27
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
69.5%
Draw
24.1%
Away win
6.3%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:27
scoring fit λ 1.67 / μ 0.35
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
6.3%
|
15.81x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
24.1%
|
4.14x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
69.5%
|
1.44x | 67.7% n=31 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 3 meetings — Hearts of Oak 1W / 2D / 0L
· momentum Hearts of O… 2.17 ppg vs Hearts U21 1.0 ppg
Hearts of Oak · last 6
08 Nov · Premier League
3-0
W
01 Nov · Premier League
1-0
L
23 Oct · Premier League
1-0
W
18 Oct · Premier League
0-1
W
11 Oct · Premier League
1-0
W
03 Oct · Premier League
0-0
D
Hearts U21 · last 6
08 Nov · Premier League
3-0
L
01 Nov · Premier League
2-1
W
25 Oct · Premier League
2-1
L
18 Oct · Premier League
0-2
L
11 Oct · Premier League
3-1
L
04 Oct · Premier League
3-2
W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Premier League
Hearts of Oak 3-0 Hearts U21
20 Mar 26 · Premier League
Hearts U21 0-0 Hearts of Oak
13 Oct 25 · Premier League
Hearts of Oak 0-0 Hearts U21