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Division One League
Nations vs Fettehman United
Sat 07 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 2–0 · settledFe
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 93.9%
why
• league PROVEN (80.0%, n=25)
• type ledger 80% (n=1994)
• SELECT 90%+ (measured >=88%)
league track
proven · 80.0% of 25 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 60.9%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 12/7 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1994, 90d ledger)
measured band: 90.9% (n=164)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
93.9%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
71.6%
Draw
22.3%
Away win
6.1%
calibrated 07 Nov 18:00
scoring fit λ 1.54 / μ 0.23
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 721 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
6.1%
|
16.52x | 51.7% n=721 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
22.3%
|
4.48x | 51.7% n=721 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
71.6%
|
1.4x | 51.7% n=721 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Nations 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Nations 2.33 ppg vs Fettehman U… 1.5 ppg
Nations · last 6
07 Nov · Division One League
2-0
W
31 Oct · Division One League
3-0
W
17 Oct · Division One League
0-1
W
10 Oct · Division One League
2-0
W
03 Oct · Division One League
0-0
D
26 Sep · Division One League
1-1
D
Fettehman United · last 6
07 Nov · Division One League
2-0
L
31 Oct · Division One League
1-0
W
17 Oct · Division One League
0-0
D
11 Oct · Division One League
1-1
D
03 Oct · Division One League
1-1
D
27 Sep · Division One League
2-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Division One League
Nations 2-0 Fettehman United