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Frauen Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen Women vs Hamburger SV Women
Sun 08 Nov 15:00 0 minutes final 2–0 · settledHa
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.8%
why
• league PROVEN (78.9%, n=19)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 78.9% of 19 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.7%)
draws 13.3% of matches
team history 12/12 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.8%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
75.2%
Draw
17.3%
Away win
7.5%
calibrated 07 Nov 11:02
scoring fit λ 2.48 / μ 0.71
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 188 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
7.5%
|
13.27x | 66.5% n=188 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
17.3%
|
5.79x | 66.5% n=188 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
75.2%
|
1.33x | 66.5% n=188 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 5 meetings — Bayer Leverku… 4W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Bayer Lever… 1.67 ppg vs Hamburger S… 0.67 ppg
Bayer Leverkusen Women · last 6
08 Nov · Frauen Bundesliga
2-0
W
01 Nov · DFB Pokal - Women
1-0
L
25 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga
2-0
L
18 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga
1-1
D
02 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga
3-2
W
27 Sep · DFB Pokal - Women
0-2
W
Hamburger SV Women · last 6
08 Nov · Frauen Bundesliga
2-0
L
31 Oct · DFB Pokal - Women
3-4
L
25 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga
4-4
D
18 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga
3-1
L
04 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga
2-1
L
26 Sep · DFB Pokal - Women
1-2
W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Frauen Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkuse… 2-0 Hamburger SV Wo…
30 Mar 26 · Frauen Bundesliga
Hamburger SV Wo… 1-3 Bayer Leverkuse…
16 Nov 25 · DFB Pokal - Women
Hamburger SV Wo… 1-1 Bayer Leverkuse…
05 Nov 25 · Frauen Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkuse… 2-1 Hamburger SV Wo…
25 Nov 23 · DFB Pokal - Women
Hamburger SV Wo… 0-4 Bayer Leverkuse…
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