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Ikorodu City vs Inter Lagos

Sun 08 Nov 17:00 0 minutes
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AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 90.8%
why
• league PROVEN (75.7%, n=37)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 75.7% of 37 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.9%)
draws 40.0% of matches
team history 15/11 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
90.8%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
74.4%
Draw
22.0%
Away win
3.7%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 2.15 / μ 0.45
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 382 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
3.7%
27.3x 62.3% n=382 risky
Draw
22.0%
4.55x 62.3% n=382 risky
top Home win
74.4%
1.34x 62.3% n=382 solid
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Ikorodu City 1.0 ppg vs Inter Lagos 0.33 ppg
Ikorodu City · last 6
31 Oct · NPFL 2-2 D
25 Oct · NPFL 2-2 D
18 Oct · NPFL 2-1 L
10 Oct · NPFL 2-0 W
04 Oct · NPFL 2-0 L
30 Sep · NPFL 0-0 D
Inter Lagos · last 6
01 Nov · NPFL 1-1 D
25 Oct · NPFL 1-0 L
18 Oct · NPFL 0-2 L
11 Oct · NPFL 3-1 L
04 Oct · NPFL 1-1 D
27 Sep · NPFL 2-0 L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.
Tickets including this match
SURESHOT win chance 96.3% VOID SURESHOT win chance 96.3% VOID SURESHOT win chance 96.4% VOID