HOME
NPFL
Nasarawa United vs Plateau United
Sun 08 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 3–1 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 92.2%
book 1.16x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (75.7%, n=37)
• type ledger 80% (n=1980)
• short price 1.16x
• SELECT 90%+ (measured >=88%)
league track
proven · 75.7% of 37 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.9%)
draws 40.0% of matches
team history 16/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1980, 90d ledger)
measured band: 90.8% (n=163)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
92.2%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (92.2%)
@ 08 Nov 17:24 · 1.16x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
67.0%
Draw
25.1%
Away win
7.8%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 1.87 / μ 0.55
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 382 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
7.8%
|
12.8x | 62.3% n=382 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
25.1%
|
3.98x | 62.3% n=382 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
67.0%
|
1.49x | 62.3% n=382 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Nasarawa Unit… 6W / 1D / 5L
· momentum Nasarawa Un… 2.17 ppg vs Plateau Uni… 0.83 ppg
Nasarawa United · last 6
08 Nov · NPFL
3-1
W
01 Nov · NPFL
2-0
L
25 Oct · NPFL
1-0
W
18 Oct · NPFL
0-2
W
11 Oct · NPFL
2-0
W
04 Oct · NPFL
0-0
D
Plateau United · last 6
08 Nov · NPFL
3-1
L
01 Nov · NPFL
1-1
D
25 Oct · NPFL
2-2
D
18 Oct · NPFL
2-3
L
11 Oct · NPFL
4-0
W
04 Oct · NPFL
2-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · NPFL
Nasarawa United 3-1 Plateau United
11 Jun 26 · Federation Cup
Nasarawa United 2-1 Plateau United
10 May 26 · NPFL
Nasarawa United 1-0 Plateau United
14 Dec 25 · NPFL
Plateau United 0-0 Nasarawa United
13 Apr 25 · NPFL
Nasarawa United 3-2 Plateau United
Tickets including this match