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Persha Liga
Chernihiv vs Inhulets
Tomorrow 11:30 1 day, 1 hour
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 92.4%
why
• league OK (63.9%, n=36)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 63.9% of 36 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 47.6%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 20/20 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
morning 06-12 kickoffs: 74.6% hit (n=386)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.4%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
48.4%
Draw
26.4%
Away win
25.2%
calibrated 10 Nov 09:53
scoring fit λ 1.59 / μ 1.08
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 241 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
25.2%
|
3.98x | 46.9% n=241 | risky |
| Draw |
26.4%
|
3.79x | 46.9% n=241 | risky |
| top Home win |
48.4%
|
2.06x | 46.9% n=241 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — Chernihiv 0W / 1D / 1L
· momentum Chernihiv 1.0 ppg vs Inhulets 0.67 ppg
Chernihiv · last 6
31 Oct · Persha Liga
3-1
W
28 Oct · Cup
1-2
L
17 Oct · Persha Liga
2-1
L
11 Oct · Persha Liga
0-1
W
02 Oct · Persha Liga
3-2
L
27 Sep · Persha Liga
2-0
L
Inhulets · last 6
07 Nov · Persha Liga
1-1
D
31 Oct · Persha Liga
2-1
L
24 Oct · Persha Liga
2-0
W
17 Oct · Persha Liga
4-1
L
10 Oct · Persha Liga
0-1
L
03 Oct · Persha Liga
1-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
23 May 26 · Persha Liga
Chernihiv 1-2 Inhulets
02 Nov 25 · Persha Liga
Inhulets 1-1 Chernihiv