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First League
Noah II vs Lernayin Artsakh FC
Sun 08 Nov 16:00 0 minutesLe
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 80.7%
why
• league PROVEN (72.7%, n=33)
• type ledger 75% (n=2258)
league track
proven · 72.7% of 33 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 55.8%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 13/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2258, 90d ledger)
measured band: 76.5% (n=677)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
80.7%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (80.7%)
@ 08 Nov 17:26
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
46.6%
Draw
19.3%
Away win
34.1%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:26
scoring fit λ 1.99 / μ 1.68
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 274 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
34.1%
|
2.94x | 55.1% n=274 | risky |
| Draw |
19.3%
|
5.17x | 55.1% n=274 | risky |
| top Home win |
46.6%
|
2.15x | 55.1% n=274 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 6 meetings — Noah II 3W / 0D / 3L
· momentum Noah II 0.83 ppg vs Lernayin Ar… 1.0 ppg
Noah II · last 6
02 Nov · First League
3-2
W
13 Oct · First League
4-1
L
21 Sep · First League
2-1
L
14 Sep · First League
0-4
L
07 Sep · First League
1-1
D
01 Sep · First League
0-0
D
Lernayin Artsakh FC · last 6
01 Nov · First League
1-4
L
28 Oct · Cup
1-7
L
20 Oct · First League
5-0
W
14 Oct · First League
5-1
L
08 Oct · First League
1-2
L
21 Sep · First League
1-2
W
Head-to-head last 5
25 Nov 25 · First League
Noah II 8-1 Lernayin Artsak…
12 Aug 25 · First League
Lernayin Artsak… 2-0 Noah II
22 Nov 24 · First League
Noah II 4-2 Lernayin Artsak…
09 Aug 24 · First League
Lernayin Artsak… 4-0 Noah II
27 Nov 23 · First League
Lernayin Artsak… 2-0 Noah II