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First League
Ararat II vs Bentonit Ijevan
Sun 08 Nov 16:00 0 minutesBe
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 80.2%
why
• league PROVEN (72.7%, n=33)
• type ledger 75% (n=2258)
league track
proven · 72.7% of 33 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 55.8%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 13/13 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2258, 90d ledger)
measured band: 76.5% (n=677)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
80.2%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (80.2%)
@ 08 Nov 17:26
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
39.0%
Draw
19.8%
Away win
41.2%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:26
scoring fit λ 1.74 / μ 1.80
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 274 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
41.2%
|
2.43x | 55.1% n=274 | risky |
| Draw |
19.8%
|
5.05x | 55.1% n=274 | risky |
| Home win |
39.0%
|
2.56x | 55.1% n=274 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 4 meetings — Ararat II 4W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Ararat II 1.67 ppg vs Bentonit Ij… 2.67 ppg
Ararat II · last 6
02 Nov · First League
1-3
L
19 Oct · First League
3-3
D
14 Oct · First League
5-1
W
22 Sep · First League
2-1
W
14 Sep · First League
0-4
W
07 Sep · First League
0-1
L
Bentonit Ijevan · last 6
02 Nov · First League
0-2
W
21 Oct · First League
3-2
W
08 Oct · First League
1-1
D
22 Sep · First League
2-1
W
14 Sep · First League
3-5
W
08 Sep · First League
4-3
W
Head-to-head last 5
18 Nov 25 · First League
Ararat II 2-0 Bentonit Ijevan
05 Aug 25 · First League
Bentonit Ijevan 1-2 Ararat II
07 Apr 25 · First League
Bentonit Ijevan 2-4 Ararat II
24 Sep 24 · First League
Ararat II 4-0 Bentonit Ijevan