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Primera Division

Águila vs Municipal Limeño

Tomorrow 23:30 1 day, 20 hours
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Home or Draw · 71.9%
book 1.43x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league OK (70.8%, n=24)
• type ledger 80% (n=1995)
• priced 1.43x - band hits ~65% (60d)
• confidence 72% below the 85% proven band
league track
ok · 70.8% of 24 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 50.8%)
draws 38.3% of matches
team history 21/22 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1995, 90d ledger)
measured band: 72.9% (n=506)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2539)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
71.9%
Home or Draw
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw solid (71.9%)
@ 11 Nov 03:03 · 1.43x
board also had Under 4.5 goals 82.7%
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
44.4%
Draw
27.5%
Away win
28.1%
calibrated 11 Nov 03:03
scoring fit λ 1.67 / μ 1.30
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 187 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
28.1%
3.56x 50.8% n=187 risky
Draw
27.5%
3.63x 50.8% n=187 risky
top Home win
44.4%
2.25x 50.8% n=187 risky
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — Águila 9W / 1D / 3L · momentum Águila 2.17 ppg vs Municipal L… 1.0 ppg
Águila · last 6
08 Nov · Primera Division 3-2 L
01 Nov · Primera Division 3-4 W
26 Oct · Primera Division 3-1 W
18 Oct · Primera Division 2-2 D
11 Oct · Primera Division 3-0 W
03 Oct · Primera Division 4-1 W
Municipal Limeño · last 6
16 Nov · Primera Division 1-1 D
09 Nov · Primera Division 3-4 L
01 Nov · Primera Division 1-1 D
25 Oct · Primera Division 3-3 D
17 Oct · Primera Division 1-2 W
11 Oct · Primera Division 2-3 L
Head-to-head last 5
10 Sep 26 · Primera Division Municipal Limeño 0-0 Águila
05 Apr 26 · Primera Division Municipal Limeño 2-0 Águila
08 Feb 26 · Primera Division Águila 1-0 Municipal Limeño
19 Oct 25 · Primera Division Municipal Limeño 1-2 Águila
17 Aug 25 · Primera Division Águila 2-1 Municipal Limeño