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Primera Division
Cacahuatique vs Firpo
Tomorrow 23:30 1 day, 19 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 94.0%
why
• league OK (70.8%, n=24)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 70.8% of 24 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 50.8%)
draws 35.0% of matches
team history 19/29 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.0%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
23.8%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
50.6%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 1.07 / μ 1.66
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 187 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
50.6%
|
1.98x | 50.8% n=187 | risky |
| Draw |
25.7%
|
3.9x | 50.8% n=187 | risky |
| Home win |
23.8%
|
4.2x | 50.8% n=187 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 10 meetings — Cacahuatique 2W / 3D / 5L
· momentum Cacahuatique 1.33 ppg vs Firpo 1.5 ppg
Cacahuatique · last 6
07 Nov · Primera Division
0-2
W
31 Oct · Primera Division
1-0
W
25 Oct · Primera Division
3-3
D
17 Oct · Primera Division
0-0
D
10 Oct · Primera Division
2-1
L
03 Oct · Primera Division
4-1
L
Firpo · last 6
08 Nov · Primera Division
1-2
W
02 Nov · Primera Division
1-1
D
29 Oct · Concacaf Central Amer…
2-1
L
26 Oct · Primera Division
1-1
D
22 Oct · Concacaf Central Amer…
0-0
D
18 Oct · Primera Division
2-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
24 Sep 26 · Primera Division
Firpo 0-0 Cacahuatique
02 Apr 26 · Primera Division
Firpo 1-0 Cacahuatique
25 Feb 26 · Copa Presidente
Cacahuatique 0-1 Firpo
04 Feb 26 · Primera Division
Cacahuatique 1-3 Firpo
12 Oct 25 · Primera Division
Firpo 3-0 Cacahuatique