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Primera Division
Isidro Metapán vs Platense
Tomorrow 03:00 19 hours, 56 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 94.5%
why
• league OK (70.8%, n=24)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 70.8% of 24 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 50.8%)
draws 36.7% of matches
team history 19/19 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.4% hit (n=475)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.5%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
40.3%
Draw
30.0%
Away win
29.7%
calibrated 10 Nov 06:06
scoring fit λ 1.45 / μ 1.23
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 187 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
29.7%
|
3.36x | 50.8% n=187 | risky |
| Draw |
30.0%
|
3.33x | 50.8% n=187 | risky |
| top Home win |
40.3%
|
2.48x | 50.8% n=187 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — Isidro Metapán 5W / 3D / 5L
· momentum Isidro Meta… 1.33 ppg vs Platense 1.83 ppg
Isidro Metapán · last 6
07 Nov · Primera Division
1-1
D
01 Nov · Primera Division
1-1
D
25 Oct · Primera Division
1-0
L
18 Oct · Primera Division
3-2
W
11 Oct · Primera Division
3-0
L
04 Oct · Primera Division
3-2
W
Platense · last 6
07 Nov · Primera Division
0-2
L
31 Oct · Primera Division
0-0
D
26 Oct · Primera Division
1-1
D
19 Oct · Primera Division
2-3
W
10 Oct · Primera Division
1-4
W
04 Oct · Primera Division
2-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
09 Sep 26 · Primera Division
Platense 1-2 Isidro Metapán
19 Apr 26 · Primera Division
Isidro Metapán 0-2 Platense
23 Feb 26 · Primera Division
Platense 1-1 Isidro Metapán
06 Nov 25 · Primera Division
Isidro Metapán 0-0 Platense
04 Sep 25 · Primera Division
Platense 3-0 Isidro Metapán