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Primera Division
FAS vs Fuerte San Francisco
Today 03:00 0 minutesFu
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 91.8%
why
• league OK (70.8%, n=24)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 70.8% of 24 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 50.8%)
draws 36.7% of matches
team history 25/19 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.1% hit (n=470)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
91.8%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
69.8%
Draw
20.0%
Away win
10.2%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 2.19 / μ 0.74
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 187 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
10.2%
|
9.78x | 50.8% n=187 | risky |
| Draw |
20.0%
|
5.0x | 50.8% n=187 | risky |
| top Home win |
69.8%
|
1.43x | 50.8% n=187 | lean |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — FAS 8W / 4D / 1L
· momentum FAS 1.33 ppg vs Fuerte San … 0.83 ppg
FAS · last 6
02 Nov · Primera Division
1-1
D
26 Oct · Primera Division
3-1
L
19 Oct · Primera Division
2-3
L
11 Oct · Primera Division
0-1
W
09 Oct · Primera Division
2-1
W
05 Oct · Primera Division
1-1
D
Fuerte San Francisco · last 6
16 Nov · Primera Division
1-1
D
01 Nov · Primera Division
3-4
L
24 Oct · Primera Division
1-2
L
18 Oct · Primera Division
3-2
L
10 Oct · Primera Division
2-1
W
05 Oct · Primera Division
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
05 Sep 26 · Primera Division
Fuerte San Fran… 0-1 FAS
23 Mar 26 · Primera Division
FAS 3-1 Fuerte San Fran…
25 Jan 26 · Primera Division
Fuerte San Fran… 1-1 FAS
29 Sep 25 · Primera Division
FAS 3-0 Fuerte San Fran…
27 Jul 25 · Primera Division
Fuerte San Fran… 0-8 FAS