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Primera Division
Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza
Tomorrow 23:30 1 day, 16 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Draw or Away · 83.0%
why
• league OK (70.8%, n=24)
• type ledger 77% (n=658)
league track
ok · 70.8% of 24 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 50.8%)
draws 36.7% of matches
team history 20/27 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 76.6% hit (n=658, 90d ledger)
measured band: 72.3% (n=65)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2529)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
83.0%
Draw or Away
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Draw or Away
solid (83.0%)
@ 10 Nov 06:06
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
17.0%
Draw
26.6%
Away win
56.4%
calibrated 10 Nov 06:06
scoring fit λ 0.96 / μ 1.86
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 187 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
56.4%
|
1.77x | 50.8% n=187 | lean |
| Draw |
26.6%
|
3.76x | 50.8% n=187 | risky |
| Home win |
17.0%
|
5.88x | 50.8% n=187 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — Fuerte San Fr… 2W / 1D / 10L
· momentum Fuerte San … 0.83 ppg vs Alianza 1.33 ppg
Fuerte San Francisco · last 6
16 Nov · Primera Division
1-1
D
09 Nov · Primera Division
2-2
D
01 Nov · Primera Division
3-4
L
24 Oct · Primera Division
1-2
L
18 Oct · Primera Division
3-2
L
10 Oct · Primera Division
2-1
W
Alianza · last 6
08 Nov · Primera Division
3-2
W
01 Nov · Primera Division
1-0
L
28 Oct · Concacaf Central Amer…
0-0
D
25 Oct · Primera Division
1-0
W
21 Oct · Concacaf Central Amer…
2-1
L
17 Oct · Primera Division
0-0
D
Head-to-head last 5
24 Sep 26 · Primera Division
Alianza 2-2 Fuerte San Fran…
01 May 26 · Primera Division
Fuerte San Fran… 0-1 Alianza
08 Mar 26 · Primera Division
Alianza 3-2 Fuerte San Fran…
16 Nov 25 · Primera Division
Fuerte San Fran… 1-3 Alianza
14 Sep 25 · Primera Division
Alianza 1-0 Fuerte San Fran…