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Liga Nacional
CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma
Today 03:30 6 minutesAt
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 93.1%
why
• league AT_RISK (46.2%, n=13)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• league's published legs underperform
league track
at risk · 46.2% of 13 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 23.2%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 25/13 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.1% hit (n=469)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.1%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
73.0%
Draw
18.8%
Away win
8.2%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:52
scoring fit λ 2.14 / μ 0.58
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 235 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
8.2%
|
12.23x | 51.5% n=235 | risky |
| Draw |
18.8%
|
5.32x | 51.5% n=235 | risky |
| top Home win |
73.0%
|
1.37x | 51.5% n=235 | solid |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 5 meetings — CD Marathon 3W / 1D / 1L
· momentum CD Marathon 1.83 ppg vs Atlético Ch… 1.67 ppg
CD Marathon · last 6
06 Nov · Liga Nacional
3-1
W
02 Nov · Liga Nacional
2-0
L
28 Oct · Concacaf Central Amer…
0-0
D
25 Oct · Liga Nacional
2-2
D
21 Oct · Concacaf Central Amer…
2-1
W
16 Oct · Liga Nacional
2-1
W
Atlético Choloma · last 6
06 Nov · Liga Nacional
0-0
D
01 Nov · Liga Nacional
0-3
L
24 Oct · Liga Nacional
3-1
W
18 Oct · Liga Nacional
1-2
W
11 Oct · Liga Nacional
2-1
L
19 Sep · Liga Nacional
2-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
16 Aug 26 · Liga Nacional
Atlético Choloma 0-1 CD Marathon
01 May 26 · Liga Nacional
CD Marathon 0-1 Atlético Choloma
11 Mar 26 · Liga Nacional
Atlético Choloma 0-0 CD Marathon
28 Nov 25 · Liga Nacional
Atlético Choloma 0-4 CD Marathon
15 Sep 25 · Liga Nacional
CD Marathon 1-0 Atlético Choloma