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Second League
Beroe vs Pirin Blagoevgrad
Sun 08 Nov 16:30 0 minutes final 3–3 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Home or Draw · 92.7%
why
• league OK (70.0%, n=30)
• type ledger 80% (n=1979)
• priced 1.08x needs 93% to break even
league track
ok · 70.0% of 30 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 52.1%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 21/19 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1979, 90d ledger)
measured band: 90.7% (n=162)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
92.7%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
76.1%
Draw
16.6%
Away win
7.3%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:26
scoring fit λ 2.21 / μ 0.52
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 284 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
7.3%
|
13.64x | 52.8% n=284 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
16.6%
|
6.04x | 52.8% n=284 | risky | won |
| top Home win |
76.1%
|
1.31x | 52.8% n=284 | solid | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Beroe 0W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Beroe 1.17 ppg vs Pirin Blago… 0.83 ppg
Beroe · last 6
08 Nov · Second League
3-3
D
30 Oct · Second League
2-0
L
23 Oct · Second League
3-1
W
17 Oct · Cup
0-3
L
10 Oct · Second League
3-2
L
04 Oct · Cup
1-2
W
Pirin Blagoevgrad · last 6
08 Nov · Second League
3-3
D
30 Oct · Second League
0-2
L
23 Oct · Second League
2-0
L
17 Oct · Cup
1-4
L
10 Oct · Second League
1-1
D
04 Oct · Cup
2-3
W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Second League
Beroe 3-3 Pirin Blagoevgr…
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