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Premier Division
Europa vs Hound Dogs
Fri 06 Nov 22:00 0 minutes final 3–0 · 1 won · 0 lostHo
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 92.2%
why
• league PROVEN (91.3%, n=23)
• type ledger 75% (n=2265)
league track
proven · 91.3% of 23 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 73.2%)
draws 18.3% of matches
team history 11/9 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2265, 90d ledger)
measured band: 87.7% (n=57)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2529)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
92.2%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (92.2%)
@ 06 Nov 17:59
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
90.2%
Draw
7.8%
Away win
2.0%
calibrated 06 Nov 17:59
scoring fit λ 3.17 / μ 0.37
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 02 Nov · 188 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
2.0%
|
50.36x | 69.1% n=188 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
7.8%
|
12.76x | 69.1% n=188 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
90.2%
|
1.11x | 69.1% n=188 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 3 meetings — Europa 3W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Europa 1.0 ppg vs Hound Dogs 0.0 ppg
Europa · last 6
06 Nov · Premier Division
3-0
W
31 Oct · Premier Division
1-0
L
23 Oct · Premier Division
2-0
W
10 Oct · Premier Division
2-0
L
20 Sep · Premier Division
1-2
L
12 Sep · Premier Division
3-0
L
Hound Dogs · last 6
06 Nov · Premier Division
3-0
L
01 Nov · Premier Division
0-5
L
24 Oct · Premier Division
4-0
L
18 Oct · Premier Division
0-8
L
11 Oct · Premier Division
4-0
L
19 Sep · Premier Division
1-2
L
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Premier Division
Europa 3-0 Hound Dogs
22 Feb 26 · Premier Division
Europa 6-0 Hound Dogs
04 Dec 25 · Premier Division
Hound Dogs 0-3 Europa