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Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów

Sun 08 Nov 21:15 0 minutes final 2–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 75.8%
book 1.33x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (84.8%, n=46)
• type ledger 75% (n=2259)
• priced 1.33x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
proven · 84.8% of 46 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 71.8%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 18/22 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2259, 90d ledger)
measured band: 74.8% (n=938)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2519)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
75.8%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins solid (75.8%)
@ 08 Nov 17:26 · 1.33x
board also had Draw or Away 81.8% pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
18.2%
Draw
24.2%
Away win
57.6%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:26
scoring fit λ 1.08 / μ 2.02
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 291 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
57.6%
1.74x 45.7% n=291 lean lost
Draw
24.2%
4.13x 45.7% n=291 risky lost
Home win
18.2%
5.49x 45.7% n=291 risky won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 3 meetings — Stal Mielec 1W / 1D / 1L · momentum Stal Mielec 1.67 ppg vs Ruch Chorzów 2.17 ppg
Stal Mielec · last 6
08 Nov · I Liga 2-0 W
30 Oct · I Liga 0-1 W
24 Oct · I Liga 0-0 D
17 Oct · I Liga 3-0 L
11 Oct · I Liga 2-1 W
19 Sep · I Liga 7-1 L
Ruch Chorzów · last 6
08 Nov · I Liga 2-0 L
03 Nov · I Liga 1-1 D
28 Oct · Cup 0-1 W
25 Oct · I Liga 2-0 W
16 Oct · I Liga 3-0 W
11 Oct · I Liga 0-2 W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · I Liga Stal Mielec 2-0 Ruch Chorzów
14 Mar 26 · I Liga Ruch Chorzów 2-1 Stal Mielec
31 Aug 25 · I Liga Stal Mielec 2-2 Ruch Chorzów