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Virsliga
Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja
Sun 08 Nov 13:00 0 minutes final 1–2 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Draw or Away · 83.5%
book 1.44x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (84.0%, n=25)
• type ledger 77% (n=658)
• priced 1.44x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
proven · 84.0% of 25 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 65.3%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 26/29 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 76.6% hit (n=658, 90d ledger)
measured band: 72.3% (n=65)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
83.5%
Draw or Away
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Draw or Away
solid (83.5%)
@ 08 Nov 10:38 · 1.44x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
16.5%
Draw
27.3%
Away win
56.2%
calibrated 08 Nov 10:38
scoring fit λ 0.99 / μ 1.92
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 181 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
56.2%
|
1.78x | 60.8% n=181 | lean | won |
| Draw |
27.3%
|
3.66x | 60.8% n=181 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
16.5%
|
6.07x | 60.8% n=181 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — Grobiņa 5W / 1D / 7L
· momentum Grobiņa 0.67 ppg vs FK Liepaja 1.5 ppg
Grobiņa · last 6
08 Nov · Virsliga
1-2
L
01 Nov · Virsliga
3-0
L
26 Oct · Virsliga
2-5
L
17 Oct · Virsliga
3-2
W
10 Oct · Virsliga
2-1
L
20 Sep · Virsliga
1-1
D
FK Liepaja · last 6
08 Nov · Virsliga
1-2
W
01 Nov · Virsliga
3-3
D
24 Oct · Virsliga
0-0
D
18 Oct · Virsliga
3-0
W
12 Oct · Virsliga
2-3
L
19 Sep · Virsliga
0-0
D
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Virsliga
Grobiņa 1-2 FK Liepaja
21 Aug 26 · Virsliga
FK Liepaja 3-1 Grobiņa
16 Jun 26 · Virsliga
Grobiņa 1-0 FK Liepaja
28 Apr 26 · Virsliga
FK Liepaja 1-1 Grobiņa
21 Sep 25 · Virsliga
Grobiņa 0-1 FK Liepaja
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